Overview
Nuclear Deterrence is the logic of madness. It kept the peace for 70 years by threatening to end the world.
Core Idea
The core idea is Fear. If you hit me, I will hit you back, and we will both die. Therefore, you won’t hit me.
Formal Definition
A strategy intended to dissuade an adversary from taking an action not yet started by means of the threat of reprisal.
- MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction): The equilibrium where both sides have enough weapons to destroy the other, even after being hit first.
Intuition
- The Scorpions in a Bottle: Two scorpions in a bottle. If one stings, the other will sting back before it dies. Both die. So neither stings.
- The Doomsday Machine: You need a weapon so terrible that using it is suicide.
Examples
- The Cold War: USA vs. USSR. They never fought directly because of the bomb.
- North Korea: Wants nukes not to conquer the world, but to prevent the US from invading (Insurance Policy).
Common Misconceptions
- Misconception: You need more nukes to win.
- Correction: Once you have enough to destroy the world once, more doesn’t help. (Overkill).
- Misconception: Missile Defense is good.
- Correction: Paradoxically, a perfect shield makes war more likely (because one side thinks it can win). This is the Security Dilemma.
Related Concepts
- Game Theory: The Prisoner’s Dilemma and Chicken.
- Ethics: Is it moral to threaten to kill millions of civilians?
Applications
- Diplomacy: The “Nuclear Umbrella.”
Criticism and Limitations
- Rationality: It assumes leaders are rational. What if a suicidal cult gets the bomb?
- Accidents: We almost blew up the world by mistake several times (e.g., Stanislav Petrov).
Further Reading
- The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy by Lawrence Freedman